Brian Bald
Sep 26, 2008

by Dr. Tom, Fantasy M.D.

A weekly Rx for Fantasy ailments.

Coming back for 4?

So I got a few picks wrong last week, but I’m getting back on the horse. In fact, my worst fantasy blunder of the week didn’t occur on this fabulous blog, no it occurred in my girlfriend’s apartment. Yes, Head Nurse Girlfriend (not to be confused with Dr. Girlfriend from the Venture Bros. despite villainously stealing every guy I wanted in our 14-team league draft) had a conundrum.  All Day Peterson was nicked and it was possible since we include return yards that Chester Cheetah Taylor was due for an outbreak.  So after a bit of pandering and analyzing I got Head Nurse Girlfriend to start Chester Taylor thinking to myself, “What a genius you are, Dr. Tom. Convincing her to bench Ronnie Brown of the lowly Aquatic Mammals of Miami against Darth Bill and his band of Boston Americans.”  Then the strangest thing happened, Ronnie Brown turned into Darren McFadden in his Arkansas heydays and has a bajillion point (we use a generous scoring system) fantasy output.  So whomever feels burned over Kevin Smith remember at least in this column I didn’t say bench Ronnie Brown.

Glad to see you back, open up and say “Thank you Dr. Tom.”

WEEK FOUR STARTERS:

QB:

J.T. O’Sullivan – He had more modest success last week than I was expecting but since the Mannings are on bye and he’s playing the Saints (29th worst against the pass) I think JTO’s productive easily amassing typical career Eli #’s or current Peyton #’s.  Look for 250+ yrds. and 2 TDs in this shootout.

Carson Palmer– Carson had a decent day against the Giants deciding not to throw to their secondary and remembering that T.J. Houshmanzadeh is a total stud (Head Nurse Girlfriend started Lee Evans over T.J. last week on her own accord). The Browns are to defensive football what the New York Mets are to defensive football.  They have had no pass rush to speak of and I think you see Palmer as a safer starter from here on out.

Jason Campbell– If you’ve watched the Cowboys lately you and know about Jason Taylor’s emergency surgery on his calf then you probably realize that the Redskins are going to have to put points on the board to win in Dallas.  That said, I expect that the Redskins will get behind and Campbell will have to try to exploit a Dallas secondary that hasn’t played to its superstar at every position expectation.  The interesting match-up here is Santana Moss v. Terrence Newman or Adam Pacman Jones.  If you lose points for sacks and you some how have O’Sullivan or Palmer and Campbell start the other two because Dallas is getting to QBs lately.

RB:

Jonathan Stewart– Atlanta has been pretty rad at home and bad on the road against Tampa.  Furthermore, they’ve allowed at least 1 rushing TD to a running back every week.  If you are a Jonathan Stewart owner you may have noticed he’s doing the scoring for the Panthers.  If LJ and the Chiefs can get a 100 yrds. on the ground and a score, Jonathan Stewart owners will be pleased with his output against an overmatched Falcons run defense.

Chris Perry– What the fudge right? WRONG! Perry is getting 20 carries a game. In the age of the RBBC and Darth Bill pretending he’s Mike Shenanigans you gotta love the Bengals refusal to let Kenny Watkins touch the ball despite his good work last year.  Perry has had a rushing TD the past two weeks and should add one against a bad Browns team.  Look for 100 total yards and a score.

Pierre Thomas–  He’s going to get crap yards, but as a bye week flex play, I really like the potential to score a couple of TDs when the Saints inevitably get to the goal line against the 49ers.  Plus, I think this week the Saints try to use Thomas and Bush on the field together more since the Saints WR corps(e) has turned into the Seahawks WR corpse.

WR (In case you haven’t been playing close attention, I usually totally botch a couple of these picks, thank God for Roddy White last week):

Braylon Edwards –  Who doesn’t love a good redemption story?  The Bengals are without both starting corners, and Edwards traditionally has performed very well against the Bengals averaging over 100 yrds. and a score last year.  Interesting note, if Derek Anderson doesn’t get things going in the 1st half, expect Brady Quinn to take over for the rest of the season as starter to ignite the offense.  Either guy puts up good numbers against this secondary.

Santana Moss– Going back to last year Moss now has a TD in his last 6 games and has averaged over 100 yrds. in each game against the Cowboys for the last 5 games.  The Dallas secondary struggled with rookie DeSean Jackson, whom I think compares well to Moss.  Moss is right on the verge of being an every week starter, especially in PPR leagues.  He currently is on pace for 90+ catches.

Robert Meachem– Bye week special! Patten has been ruled out and the Saints will be throwing all over the 49ers with Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson as the WRs.  If you’re shallow at WR and Meachum is available grab him quick! He’s got great big play potential and went for 74 yrds. last week.  Look for him to improve his rapport with Brees and become the de facto #2 behind Reggie Bush.  In dynasty leagues you should already have him, but if you don’t, he was a 1st round pick who had a great preseason he will be an impact player in this offense sometime in the next 2 years.

WEEK FOUR SITTERS

QB:

Ben Roethlisberger – (Commence Stuart Scott sequence) Dude got banged up nasty by a Heavy D. rush for 8 sacks.  That’s straight filthy son.  Kid already had a shoulder now he’s got a hand and it ain’t lookin’ any prettier against the B-More Ravens and the Mad Backer, Bart Scott.  (End Stuart Scott protocol) Anyhow, he’s going to get hit, the running game will suck with Parker out and the Ravens brick wall run defense.  I bet the final is like 6 – 9 (take the under).

Trent Green– What would this column be without me boldly telling you the Rams stink and their QB play with stink in fantasy this week?  So anyhow, you know the drill avoid all Rams except Steven Jackson, who you have to play because you used a top-5 pick on him, although against Buffalo it will be brutal and not in a sort of metal circle cool way.  Brutal like your 8th grade dance brutal.

David Garrard – I don’t trust this offense.  Just because you ran all over the Colts, which everyone has, doesn’t mean you’ve cleared the hurdle.  To be fair they play a weak Texans team but their game is ground control.  GROUND CONTROL TO DR. TOM: Take your other QBBC and tell him put his helmet on.  Guys I like more than Garrard are Rivers, Cutler, Rodgers, Griese, Warner, Romo, McNabb, etc. Basically I’ll take Garrard over Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Large Ben, Trent Green and Kyle Orton.

RB:

Rashard Mendenhall – Alright so you probably drafted this guy with hopes that he’d be a rookie stud and you would in turn rule the universe like King Adam.  I bet you’re thrilled he’s playing and he might be a viable play next week due to the nature of Parker’s injury, however against a Raven’s defense that hasn’t allowed a 100 rusher for 19 games against a banged up line that couldn’t move on the Eagles or Buffalo (no shame in either BTW) I can’t see Mendenhall even really being a good flex play.

Darren McFadden– The word from the Raiders is that he’s having a lot of trouble moving around on his turf toe and can’t cut off his right foot.  If he was a Larry Johnson-style downhill runner that wouldn’t be a problem but since he’s trying to be All Day meets Barry Sanders I think he’ll have a disappointing afternoon and Michael Bush will the Raider RB of value.

Larry Johnson– The Falcons run defense is pretty terrible and so is the Broncos, so he shouldn’t be down here right?  Well the Broncos have scored 31 and 24 points the last two weeks against better defenses in the 1st half! While I realize Herm Edwards seems to have no idea that you can’t grind out a win when down by 20+ pts., at some point when the Broncos go up by 28 – 35, I’m thinking mid-2nd quarter the Chiefs abandon the run and Damon Huard, T.G. and D. Bowe end up as fantasy heroes with sweet garbage numbers as they lose by 21.  PS – Last time LJ was supposed to be awesome (2 weeks ago against the Raiders) he went for 22 yrds. on 13 carries.  Yikes.

*BONUS: Chris Johnson – I am personally heavily invested into Chris Johnson not $700 billion but close, and I will say that I won’t start him in any league this week.  If you don’t have the depth you have to play him but with Collins at QB instead of the Check-down Grimace his screen pass potential is limited, and Fisher will probably give the load (pun intended) to Lenwhale.  Besides unless the game ends in 0 – 0 tie somebody will have to score and it won’t be C.J.

WR:

Bernard Berrian– Last week Berrian looked alright with Frerotte behind center, but this week against the Titans (Fantasy vacuum game), the pass rush will be in Gus’s AARP mug all day and Berrian won’t have time to get downfield for the big play.  Besides Taylor and Peterson will probably get like 50 total carries.

Laveranues Coles– Favre looked like a physically old guy playing a kid’s game with the mind of a child forcing errant balls at Antonio Cromartie in San Diego.  For some reason, Chansi Stuckey (see below) gets all the TDs he’s like a modern day Cris Carter without the talent or baggage and Cotchery is developing in the Donald Driver role in Favre’s life.  Favre probably won’t end up with 30 TDs and he faces an underrated Arizona D that shut down Dr. Tom favorite JTO and sacked him 4 times.  Bottom line it’s not Coles, it’s Favre.

Antonio Bryant– Wish I had mentioned him instead of Bryant Johnson last week.  That said, I like Antonio Bryant going forward just not against a proud GB defense. I know GB will be missing the starting safeties and Al Harris but given his size and recent statistics I think Bryant ends up with Charles Woodson in his face all day who just shut down T.O. Get Bryant, stash him on your bench he has a game left against the Saints, the Falcons and two against Carolina all teams you can pass on.

WEEK THREE DROPS

Jeremy Shockey– Sounds crazy I know, but sports hernia injuries, although they can recover from 3 – 6 weeks, will affect his play all season.  L.J. Smith suffered through one last year and was not fantasy relevant all year.  Besides, it’s bye-season, and you need the extra roster spot.  Once your byes clear up, then if you want him grab him back as I doubt most owners will grab him because of the injury, but if they do, you’ll thank me later.

Sidney Rice– He was considered a minor sleeper by some, Dr. Tom included, but the Vikings are too one dimensional.  He will never be a guy you’ll insert and feel comfortable with. You’re better off with any WR on the 49ers because they have a greater chance of having a big day if you want a lottery ticket type guy to fill the inconsistent void that Rice will leave.

Matt Schaub– I say this not as an immediate, but to prepare for immediate evacuation.  Schaub has played poorly enough that Sage Rosenfels has re-entered the conversation in Houston.  If Schaub fails to perform over the next couple of weeks or performs horribly this week, we could be looking at a new QB in Houston.

WEEK THREE PICKUPS

Chansi Stuckey– There’s a .00001% chance this guy is Greg Jennings from last year and ends up with all of Brett’s TDs. Take your lowest upside guy drop him and get Stuckey.  If he gets a TD this week, that’s 4 in a row, and you have to consider him a bye week fill-in. I know, it’s chancey. (Couldn’t resist)

Sage Rosenfels– If he becomes the starter he’s got weapons, A. Johnson, Walters and Steve Slaton (grab him if he’s still available, he shouldn’t be unless you play in some circus league with a bunch of total clowns).  Plus, he aired it out like crazy while Schaub was hurt last year.

Brady Quinn– When Anderson gets demoted, Quinn will be given full reign of the offense so the Browns can see what they have.  Quinn doesn’t throw the deep ball as well as Anderson but is more accurate so Winslow sees a large gain and Edwards a slight bump because the ball won’t hit the ground or go flying out of bounds.

Random Musings –

This is the best time to trade as many owners panic over losses that accrue from the bye weeks.  This is the best time to get a stud at a discount and not feel bad about it because it’s a win-win, you get a stud and they get the help they wanted for that one win.  If you’re undefeated right now or have one loss assume you’ll lose the week that your best player is out, get over it now and don’t do anything dumb to ruin your team for the playoffs.  In fact, if you’re undefeated start building for the playoffs now.  I’ll use a recent example, in a 14-team league I’m in, I had Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White. Several teams had one or no WRs due to injury.  I was able to trade R. White to a team who needed a receiver straight up for Marques Colston because they couldn’t afford to slip for the bye week stretch run.  So now I have Edwards and Marshall until the late season when I’ll have Marshall and Colston, which is a problem I think we’d all love to have.  The whole point is remember losing by .1 or losing by 155 is the exact same in the standings. Don’t hurt your team for the season for a short-term W.  Good luck this week.

Caution side effects may include swelling in the areas of fantasy points and wins.  Please consult your league commissioner if these side effects become serious and threaten the equilibrium of your league.  In some cases these side effects can lead to Fantasy Championships, a potentially serious disease that will cause others around you to become jealous or irritable when playing your fantasy team.  Use at your own risk.